Tuesday, July 15, 2008
at
14:41
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Let's talk about Tuesday.
1. Tuesday, July 15th, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 4:30 a.m. we will have UK CPI coming out. This indicator has been acting strangely. Last month we had +0.2 deviation so GBP/USD should have been going up but it actually spiked up by 30 pips and then it went the other way. Two months ago it spiked up by 50 pips and went the other way. Three months ago we saw 40 to 50 pips move and again it went the other way. Probably one way to approach it is to trade against it, that is wait when it moves 40 to 50 pips and enter a position with opposite direction. Why? Please watch the video for the detailed explanation. Because of that, there are no triggers for this report.
2. Tuesday, July 15th, 2008 (5:00 a.m. New York Time) GERMANY
At 5:00 a.m. we will have German ZEW coming out. This moves pretty well. If the number comes out much worse then expected, EUR/USD may go down by 35 to 50 pips but expect a big retracement as well. If it comes out at -60 or more negative, sell EUR/USD but look to get out pretty quickly because most likely it will retrace. If it comes out at -50 or less negative, it is going to be first better-than-expected number since March. On March we had a steady price action. Most likely people will be very surprise so I would expect 50 pips move up but take some profit once you are in profit just in case it would retrace.
3. Tuesday, July 15th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have a few U.S. indicators coming out. I will be trading U.S. Retail Sales X Autos (Core) which is expected to come out at 1.0%. With 0.5 deviation you can expect 30 pips at most, and probably there will be a big reversal. If it comes out at 1.6% or higher, that would should be good for USD/JPY and I would buy USD/JPY and look for 30 pips price action but be very careful. If it comes out at 0.4% or lower, that would be bad for the U.S. dollar and I would sell USD/JPY and look for 30 pips price action. Before the trade, look for support/resistance levels and don't try hard to break them if the price does not want to break them. If there is a big conflict with PPI, stay away or exit quickly. PPI should not be a big deal unless there is a big conflict.
4. Tuesday, July 15th, 2008 (9:00 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
At 9:00 a.m. we will have Canadian Interest Rate statement. It is expected they will keep the rates unchanged at 3.00%. If they hike the rates to 3.25%, I would sell USD/CAD and look for 70 pips price action. If they lower the rates to 2.75%, I would buy USD/CAD and look for 70 pips price action as well. They will also release a statement so this might move USD/CAD sharply.
5. Tuesday, July 15th, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 10:00 a.m. there will be Bernanke's testimony released. I would trade it on EUR/USD but if you are new, stay away from it. If interested in trading it, please watch the video.
1. Tuesday, July 15th, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 4:30 a.m. we will have UK CPI coming out. This indicator has been acting strangely. Last month we had +0.2 deviation so GBP/USD should have been going up but it actually spiked up by 30 pips and then it went the other way. Two months ago it spiked up by 50 pips and went the other way. Three months ago we saw 40 to 50 pips move and again it went the other way. Probably one way to approach it is to trade against it, that is wait when it moves 40 to 50 pips and enter a position with opposite direction. Why? Please watch the video for the detailed explanation. Because of that, there are no triggers for this report.
2. Tuesday, July 15th, 2008 (5:00 a.m. New York Time) GERMANY
At 5:00 a.m. we will have German ZEW coming out. This moves pretty well. If the number comes out much worse then expected, EUR/USD may go down by 35 to 50 pips but expect a big retracement as well. If it comes out at -60 or more negative, sell EUR/USD but look to get out pretty quickly because most likely it will retrace. If it comes out at -50 or less negative, it is going to be first better-than-expected number since March. On March we had a steady price action. Most likely people will be very surprise so I would expect 50 pips move up but take some profit once you are in profit just in case it would retrace.
3. Tuesday, July 15th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have a few U.S. indicators coming out. I will be trading U.S. Retail Sales X Autos (Core) which is expected to come out at 1.0%. With 0.5 deviation you can expect 30 pips at most, and probably there will be a big reversal. If it comes out at 1.6% or higher, that would should be good for USD/JPY and I would buy USD/JPY and look for 30 pips price action but be very careful. If it comes out at 0.4% or lower, that would be bad for the U.S. dollar and I would sell USD/JPY and look for 30 pips price action. Before the trade, look for support/resistance levels and don't try hard to break them if the price does not want to break them. If there is a big conflict with PPI, stay away or exit quickly. PPI should not be a big deal unless there is a big conflict.
4. Tuesday, July 15th, 2008 (9:00 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
At 9:00 a.m. we will have Canadian Interest Rate statement. It is expected they will keep the rates unchanged at 3.00%. If they hike the rates to 3.25%, I would sell USD/CAD and look for 70 pips price action. If they lower the rates to 2.75%, I would buy USD/CAD and look for 70 pips price action as well. They will also release a statement so this might move USD/CAD sharply.
5. Tuesday, July 15th, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 10:00 a.m. there will be Bernanke's testimony released. I would trade it on EUR/USD but if you are new, stay away from it. If interested in trading it, please watch the video.
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bugatti's way
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