Thursday, July 24, 2008
at
18:00
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Let's first review what happened on Wednesday.
At 4:30 a.m. we had BOE coming out. The vote was 8:1 but comments were more hawkish than expected, and GBP was going up greatly.
At 7:00 a.m. we had Canadian CPI. It came out too close to expectations to enter a trade.
At 5:00 p.m. we had a surprise rate cut out of New Zealand. Only 24% of economists expected a rate cut. We saw 84 pips move on NZD/USD. I was hoping for a miracle retracement to enter a trade because this may go down even more. Probably there are more rate cuts coming out by the end of 2008.
Let's talk about Thursday.
1. Thursday, July 24th, 2008 (4:00 a.m. New York Time) GERMANY
At 4:00 a.m. we will have German IFO. It is expected to come out at 100. If it comes out at 101, I would buy EUR/USD. If it comes out at 99, I would sell EUR/USD. In either case, I would expect 30 pips of price action although we saw 60 pips moves on 1 deviation.
2. Thursday, July 24th, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 4:30 a.m. we will have UK Retail Sales m/m coming out. It is expected to come out at -2.6%. We will have to use a bigger deviation than usually use because the expectation range is much wider: it's between -4.0% to +0.5%. Therefore, I would use 1% trigger. If it comes out at -1.6% or less negative (higher) on m/m, I would buy GBP/USD and expect 35 pips price action. If it comes out at -3.6% or more negative (lower), I would sell GBP/USD and expect 35 pips move as well. Last month with much bigger deviation we had 65 pips move so if it is going to deviate by much more than just 1%, we might see much bigger move.
3. Thursday, July 24th, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 10:00 a.m. we will have U.S. Existing Home Sales coming out. It is expected to come out at 4.94M. If it comes out at 5.04M, that would be good for the U.S. dollar, and USD/JPY should be moving by 40 pips. If it comes out at 4.84M or lower, I would sell USD/JPY and expect 40 pips price action as well. This may work better than it was performing in the past, and any positive deviation may be appreciated by the market.
4. Thursday, July 24th, 2008 (7:30 p.m. New York Time) JAPAN
At 7:30 p.m. we will have Tokyo CPI. Leave it alone.
Happy Trading!!
At 4:30 a.m. we had BOE coming out. The vote was 8:1 but comments were more hawkish than expected, and GBP was going up greatly.
At 7:00 a.m. we had Canadian CPI. It came out too close to expectations to enter a trade.
At 5:00 p.m. we had a surprise rate cut out of New Zealand. Only 24% of economists expected a rate cut. We saw 84 pips move on NZD/USD. I was hoping for a miracle retracement to enter a trade because this may go down even more. Probably there are more rate cuts coming out by the end of 2008.
Let's talk about Thursday.
1. Thursday, July 24th, 2008 (4:00 a.m. New York Time) GERMANY
At 4:00 a.m. we will have German IFO. It is expected to come out at 100. If it comes out at 101, I would buy EUR/USD. If it comes out at 99, I would sell EUR/USD. In either case, I would expect 30 pips of price action although we saw 60 pips moves on 1 deviation.
2. Thursday, July 24th, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 4:30 a.m. we will have UK Retail Sales m/m coming out. It is expected to come out at -2.6%. We will have to use a bigger deviation than usually use because the expectation range is much wider: it's between -4.0% to +0.5%. Therefore, I would use 1% trigger. If it comes out at -1.6% or less negative (higher) on m/m, I would buy GBP/USD and expect 35 pips price action. If it comes out at -3.6% or more negative (lower), I would sell GBP/USD and expect 35 pips move as well. Last month with much bigger deviation we had 65 pips move so if it is going to deviate by much more than just 1%, we might see much bigger move.
3. Thursday, July 24th, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 10:00 a.m. we will have U.S. Existing Home Sales coming out. It is expected to come out at 4.94M. If it comes out at 5.04M, that would be good for the U.S. dollar, and USD/JPY should be moving by 40 pips. If it comes out at 4.84M or lower, I would sell USD/JPY and expect 40 pips price action as well. This may work better than it was performing in the past, and any positive deviation may be appreciated by the market.
4. Thursday, July 24th, 2008 (7:30 p.m. New York Time) JAPAN
At 7:30 p.m. we will have Tokyo CPI. Leave it alone.
Happy Trading!!
Posted by
bugatti's way
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